Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.1%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 23 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 23 Feb 2026 to 3 Mar 2026, the highest close was 16.5% on 23 Feb 2026 and the lowest 1.8% on 2 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 5.5% on 24 Feb 2026. $31.4K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 4, 8:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 23 Feb 2026 – 3 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2026 | 16.5% |
| 3 Mar 2026 | 1.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Teixeira10 | Yes | 400 |
| asfdt22 | Yes | 220 |
| 88mnm88 | Yes | 149.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participate on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conduct a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, confirmed by the U.S. Government or by an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-strikeoperation-on-foreign-soil-by-886
| Yes |
| 135.13 |
| kandinsky | Yes | 100 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 100 |
| Wingnuts91 | Yes | 50 |
| abc1231112441 | Yes | 42 |
| PX5300 | Yes | 27.55 |
| staydown5ive | Yes | 21.91 |
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