Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 26 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 96 daily closes on record from 26 Jan 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 23.5% on 31 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5 points up, to 11.5% on 12 Apr 2025. $92.29K traded over the market's life.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 12:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 96 points, 26 Jan 2025 – 1 May 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jan 2025 | 20.5% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| kimchiman777 | Yes | 1.25K |
| noteu4guy | Yes | 612.11 |
| hghhh. | Yes | 445.54 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-operation-in-mexico-before-may
| Yes |
| 76.92 |
| TOine11 | Yes | 70.59 |
| majorlosses | Yes | 68.73 |
| ArthurGreen | Yes | 55.56 |
| GangstaRob | Yes | 50 |
| bingus1 | Yes | 15 |
| ncode123 | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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