Unemployment rate over 4.2% in September?

economyResolved

No, settled Oct 4, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$15.7K

Resolved

Settled

Oct 4, 2024 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 4 Oct 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 37.5%. Yes opened at 57% on 17 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 17 Sep 2024 to 4 Oct 2024, the highest close was 72% on 28 Sep 2024 and the lowest 53% on 24 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 59.5% on 2 Oct 2024. $15.73K traded over the market's life.

20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 5, 2:50 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 17 Sep 2024 – 4 Oct 2024, chart shows 40%–80%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
17 Sep 2024	57.0%
4 Oct 2024	62.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
drpr	Yes	17.17
Ob1	No	5.56
sam663	Yes	1.79
divyanthj	Yes	1.35

10 of 20 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This is a market on the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for September 2024. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in the Table A-15 for the month in question. This market will resolve to “Yes”, if the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate in the United States for September 2024 is more than 4.2%, otherwise it will resolve to “No”. The next data release is scheduled for October 4, 2024, 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if unemployment is 4.3%, this market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 4.2%, this market will resolve to “No”).