Analytics
Yes is at 3.8%, down 30 points from 33.5% when the market opened on 30 Dec 2025.
The high was 49.5% on 1 Jan 2026 and the low 2.1% on 18 Sep 2026. A week ago Yes was at 2.3%; a month ago, 2.6%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 24% on 3 Jan 2026.
$70.28K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $15.8K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.64K bought Yes and $24.81K bought No.
The largest Yes position is ffdsfds with 3.4K shares; the largest No position is yevhenry with 7.1K. Ten wallets hold 75.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 82 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 8, 11:34 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 255 points · 30 Dec 2025 – 8 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 33.5% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | 3.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| yevhenry | No | 7.15K |
| ffdsfds | Yes | 3.44K |
| BigBoiBettin | Yes | 3K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-peace-referendum-passed-by-december-31-2026
| Hazya |
| Yes |
| 1.87K |
| Nadmi | Yes | 1.47K |
| 007-Bond | No | 810.06 |
| ScottyNooo | Yes | 585.28 |
| alexhamilton | Yes | 500 |
| weeeeeew | No | 424 |
| wweeqa | No | 415 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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