Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 15% on 28 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 28 Dec 2025 to 16 Jan 2026, the highest close was 15% on 28 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.6% on 15 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points up, to 11.9% on 4 Jan 2026. $99.16K traded over the market's life.
79 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 1:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 28 Dec 2025 – 16 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Dec 2025 | 15.0% |
| 16 Jan 2026 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Instructive-Landing | Yes | 1.72K |
| Faquarl | Yes | 1.14K |
| Mrbig1 | Yes | 1.05K |
| Chief-Blight | Yes | 750.25 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow municipality, or any target within the municipality, between August 25 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-hits-moscow-by-september-30
| tupac | Yes | 700.24 |
| Ceiling-Ling | Yes | 662.64 |
| Keen Comet 7185 | Yes | 612.12 |
| Courageous-Loincloth | Yes | 386.75 |
| Bod110 | Yes | 294.68 |
| ttj01 | Yes | 249.99 |
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