Analytics
The Over side is at 62%, up 12 points from 50% when the market opened on 18 Oct 2026.
Across the 9 daily closes on record from 18 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 64.5% on 27 Oct 2026 and the lowest 50% on 18 Oct 2026. A week before that last close the Over side was at 50%.
It is one of 27 markets under “UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)”.
$7.77 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $5.94K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Over position is Bunter.Hiden with 8 shares; the largest Under position is ameisgoat11 with 5.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:28 PM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the Over price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 18 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 45%–70%
| Observed | Over price |
|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 62.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bunter.Hiden | Over | 7.77 |
| ameisgoat11 | Under | 5 |
| VeryLucky888 | Under | 2.77 |
Each market will resolve to "Over" if the fight between Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, lasts beyond the listed round threshold. Each market will resolve to "Under" if the fight does not last beyond the listed round threshold. For example: "Over 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight continues past the 2:30 mark of Round 2. "Under 1.5 Rounds" will resolve "Yes" if the fight ends before the 2:30 mark of Round 2. If the fight ends exactly at the threshold, it will resolve "50-50." If the bout is not scored, postponed beyond November 14, 2026, or canceled, all options will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31
15 more markets, none above 34.5%.
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