Analytics
Yes is at 34.5%, down 16 points from 50% when the market opened on 19 Oct 2026.
Across the 8 daily closes on record from 19 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 19 Oct 2026 and the lowest 34% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 50%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 34% on 28 Oct 2026.
It is one of 27 markets under “UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Main Card)”.
The order book holds $1.98K, with a 29.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 19 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 30%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 34.5% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tom Nolan defeats Renato Moicano at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ren-tom14-2026-10-31
15 more markets, none above 34.0%.
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