Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 27 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 27 May 2026 to 4 Jul 2026, the highest close was 73% on 28 May 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 3 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 43 points up, to 65% on 3 Jun 2026. $240.83K traded over the market's life.
95 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 5, 12:07 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 27 May 2026 – 4 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 May 2026 | 50.5% |
| 4 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| jklsjdwoqejasdf | Yes | 19.11K |
| plmr | Yes | 10K |
| pleasehelpme | Yes | 6.96K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government. Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process. Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-orders-federal-review-for-ai-model-releases-by-may-31
| Yes |
| 5.98K |
| honest-owl | Yes | 5.72K |
| S888 | Yes | 824.86 |
| Soupy-Assistant-Gravy | Yes | 647.9 |
| Ivory Tide DFDA | Yes | 502.52 |
| Ivory Falcon 02AA | Yes | 388.42 |
| dzP3 | Yes | 288.32 |
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