Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 600 | $0.151 | $495 | +$404.33 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No | sell | 400 | $0.154 | $61.6 | Jun 15, 2026 |
|
| Yes |
| 618.76 |
| $0.666 |
| $485.72 |
| +$73.44 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 199.99 | $0.680 | $186.99 | +$51 |
 Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | No | 106.69 | $0.700 | $88.02 | +$13.34 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | No | 399.99 | $0.100 | $46 | +$6 |
 Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? | No | 32.77 | $0.820 | $29.98 | +$3.11 |
 Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 200 | $0.300 | $27 | -$33 |
 Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? | No | 20 | $0.810 | $17.28 | +$1.08 |
 Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 14.95 | $0.780 | $7.18 | -$4.49 |
| sell |
| 187.52 |
| $0.040 |
| $7.5 |
| Jun 15, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 100 | $0.024 | $2.4 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 475 | $0.060 | $28.5 | Jun 15, 2026 |
 Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 299.33 | $0.160 | $47.89 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 268.22 | $0.150 | $40.23 | Jun 13, 2026 |
 Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.319 | $6.38 | Jun 13, 2026 |
 Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 205.89 | $0.610 | $125.59 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 230 | $0.153 | $35.3 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 202 | $0.137 | $27.76 | Jun 13, 2026 |
 Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?No | buy | 100 | $0.010 | $1 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10?Yes | buy | 464.96 | $0.161 | $75.04 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?No | buy | 49.83 | $0.550 | $27.41 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?No | buy | 25 | $0.452 | $11.3 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?No | buy | 358.84 | $0.438 | $157.13 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?No | sell | 32.04 | $0.083 | $2.66 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?No | sell | 89.8 | $0.029 | $2.6 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?No | buy | 85.35 | $0.529 | $45.16 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 58.59 | $0.239 | $13.99 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 260.15 | $0.256 | $66.55 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 30.58 | $0.226 | $6.92 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 192.15 | $0.233 | $44.86 | Jun 4, 2026 |
 Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Yes | buy | 49.99 | $0.590 | $29.49 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.590 | $29.5 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Yes | buy | 180 | $0.529 | $95.22 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Yes | buy | 260 | $0.519 | $135.05 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Yes | buy | 151.9 | $0.506 | $76.87 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Yes | buy | 6.63 | $0.487 | $3.23 | Jun 4, 2026 |
 Grok 4.4 released by June 30?Yes | buy | 490.4 | $0.679 | $332.94 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Grok 4.4 released by June 15?Yes | buy | 310.02 | $0.060 | $18.6 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Yes | buy | 1.36K | $0.337 | $458.16 | Jun 4, 2026 |
 Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026?No | buy | 628 | $0.850 | $533.8 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026?No | buy | 40.62 | $0.840 | $34.12 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be less than $3.00 on June 30, 2026?No | buy | 100 | $0.840 | $84 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 247.33 | $0.170 | $42.05 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 236.24 | $0.179 | $42.3 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 132.31 | $0.158 | $20.91 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.090 | $3.6 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Claude 4.8 released by June 15?No | sell | 60.95 | $0.090 | $5.49 | May 27, 2026 |
| Claude 4.8 released by June 15?No | sell | 50 | $0.090 | $4.5 | May 27, 2026 |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?No | buy | 170.17 | $0.700 | $119.12 | May 27, 2026 |
 Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.180 | $3.6 | May 26, 2026 |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | buy | 28.4 | $0.170 | $4.83 | May 26, 2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?No | buy | 44.44 | $0.550 | $24.44 | May 26, 2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?No | buy | 45 | $0.540 | $24.3 | May 26, 2026 |
 Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes | buy | 84.09 | $0.003 | $0.25 | May 26, 2026 |
 Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30?Salesforce | buy | 21.92 | $0.750 | $16.44 | May 26, 2026 |
| Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30?Salesforce | buy | 50.1 | $0.510 | $25.55 | May 26, 2026 |
| Databricks vs Salesforce - higher valuation on June 30?Salesforce | buy | 52 | $0.510 | $26.52 | May 26, 2026 |
| Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?No | buy | 32.77 | $0.820 | $26.87 | May 26, 2026 |