Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 12 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 12 Sep 2026 to 15 Oct 2026, the highest close was 24.1% on 21 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 2 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 24.1% on 21 Sep 2026. $111.93K traded over the market's life.
46 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 16, 7:05 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 12 Sep 2026 – 15 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | 10.5% |
| 15 Oct 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet Maven 010F | Yes | 48.4K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1.74K |
| asdfasdav | Yes | 1.05K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in Yemen or against the Houthis between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The market will resolve based on the date of the report, not the date of publication. This market will remain open for 14 days after the specified date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published. If no such report is published by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-invokes-war-powers-in-yemen-by-september-30
| Yes |
| 842.33 |
| chessplayer | Yes | 500 |
| vvvibu | Yes | 428.61 |
| anoin123 | Yes | 341.19 |
| AharonYediot | Yes | 325.73 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 225.46 |
| 0opj4kuu4xb2 | Yes | 127.18 |
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