Analytics
Yes is at 2.4%, down 3.9 points from 6.3% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 21 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 38.2% on 11 Oct 2026 and the lowest 1.6% on 28 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.3%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points up, to 38.2% on 11 Oct 2026.
$627.31 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $6.24K since listing. The order book holds $19.35K, with a 2.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 94 trades, $272.85 bought Yes and $1.27K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Avitz33 with 641 shares; the largest No position is Inchoroi with 1.1K. Ten wallets hold 86.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 4 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 10:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 6.3% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 2.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Inchoroi | No | 1.12K |
| Avitz33 | Yes | 641.12 |
| frozenriver | Yes | 574.38 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities in Yemen or against the Houthis between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The market will resolve based on the date of the report, not the date of publication. This market will remain open for 14 days after the specified date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published. If no such report is published by that time, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-invokes-war-powers-in-yemen-by-october-31
| fedupferret |
| No |
| 500 |
| pipe17 | No | 371 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 307.72 |
| Valid-Baobab | Yes | 244.49 |
| Violet Vector B233 | Yes | 204.8 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 158.99 |
| 0xOTd | No | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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