Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 30 Jul 2025. Before it settled, the high was 17.5% on 31 Jul 2025 and the low 0.4% on 1 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 12% on 1 Aug 2025. $76.25K traded over the market's life.
39 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 29, 2:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 30 Jul 2025 – 1 Sep 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2025 | 15.5% |
| 1 Sep 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 5.14K |
| SORA69 | Yes | 4.24K |
| DonnyDefi | Yes | 4.03K |
| -Guapo-- | Yes | 2.1K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate between July 29, 4:00 PM ET and August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/thailand-strikes-cambodia-by-august-31
| Newshound | Yes | 1.04K |
| LotteryLarry666 | Yes | 619.64 |
| lissartter | Yes | 411.54 |
| TheanV | Yes | 233.82 |
| Doublecash | Yes | 204.8 |
| NASHDAN | Yes | 196.43 |
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