Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 13% on 31 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 130 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2026 to 1 Jul 2026 (22 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 35% on 3 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 35% on 3 Feb 2026. $607K traded over the market's life.
261 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 130 points, 31 Jan 2026 – 1 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2026 | 13.0% |
| 1 Jul 2026 | 0.1% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tesla-and-spacex-merger-officially-announced-by-june-30
| SentientSun | Yes | 16.67K |
| tyy | Yes | 13.66K |
| Sarcastic-Disposer | Yes | 13.19K |
| Swift Pulse D133 | Yes | 12.93K |
| m8i | Yes | 10.1K |
| Hopeful-Hobby | Yes | 5.83K |
| openseacontact | Yes | 5.8K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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