Analytics
The Up side is at 90%, up 32 points from 58% when the market opened on 21 Mar 2026.
Across the 213 daily closes on record from 21 Mar 2026 to 25 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 93.5% on 4 Apr 2026 and the lowest 58% on 21 Mar 2026. A week before that last close the Up side was at 89.5%; a month before, 90.5%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 63% on 16 Apr 2026.
$26.04K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.48K, with a 10.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 208 trades, $810 bought Up and $2.58K bought Down.
The largest Up position is IbnKhaldun with 100 shares; the largest Down position is andtay with 87. Ten wallets hold 60.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 25, 6:34 PM UTC
The paper ticket needs a verified Yes / No pair, which this market does not have here.
Open in PredictionsDaily closes of the Up price, Polymarket CLOB, 213 points, 21 Mar 2026 – 25 Oct 2026
| Observed | Up price |
|---|---|
| 21 Mar 2026 | 58.0% |
| 25 Oct 2026 | 90.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| IbnKhaldun | Up | 100 |
| andtay | Down | 87.49 |
| Slow-Exhibit | Up | 67.16 |
This market will resolve to "Up" if, according to Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2026 than in 2025 (447,000 layoffs). This market will resolve to "Down" if there are more layoffs in the information sector in 2025 than in 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if the totals are the same in 2025 and 2026. If not all relevant data points are published by June 30, 2027, ET, data published up until this point will be used to determine the 2026 total. Revisions to previous data points after all relevant data points have been released will not be considered. This market's resolution source will be the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), specifically the monthly 'Layoffs and Discharges: Information' within the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (Not Seasonally Adjusted) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTU5100LDL). Changes in the methodology by which the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports data will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The resolution source reports the values as whole numbers (thousands of persons). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/tech-layoffs-up-or-down-in-2026
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. |
| Down |
| 65.38 |
| Solar Ledger 05AA | Up | 60 |
| Reckless-Drizzle | Down | 50 |
| Aromatic-Carter | Up | 40 |
| Essential-Interchange | Up | 38.63 |
| PadreMaronno | Down | 37.35 |
| Gaditima | Up | 36.85 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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