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Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 9.5% on 15 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 25.5% on 20 Nov 2025 and the low 0.7% on 31 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 6.5% on 5 Dec 2025. $51.96K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 49 points, 15 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Nov 2025 | 9.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Patroclus | Yes | 1.15K |
| S888 | Yes | 700 |
| Scrawny-Mole | Yes | 440.99 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 310 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 277 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 224 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 151 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | Yes | 127 |
| Sore-Snap | Yes | 86.96 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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