Analytics
Yes is at 10.5%, down 46 points from 56.5% when the market opened on 23 Dec 2025.
Across the 270 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (41 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 60.5% on 5 Jan 2026 and the lowest 7% on 23 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9%; a month before, 7.5%. Its largest one-day move was 26 points up, to 49% on 10 Jul 2026.
$50 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $15.1K since listing. The order book holds $10.33K, with a 5.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 172 trades, $1.64K bought Yes and $533 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 82 shares; the largest No position is Mst-br with 115. Ten wallets hold 63.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 2:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 270 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2025 | 56.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 10.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mst-br | No | 115.21 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | No | 104.3 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 81.94 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sudan-civil-war-ceasefire-by
| Robbb |
| Yes |
| 79.4 |
| Idapro555 | No | 63.33 |
| Pointed-Wilderness | Yes | 54.45 |
| Intrahybridbeing | No | 44.76 |
| roman-16 | No | 36.14 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 35 |
| kstc17a | No | 32.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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