Analytics
Yes is at 30%, down 29 points from 59% when the market opened on 14 Aug 2026.
Across the 70 daily closes on record from 14 Aug 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 61.5% on 24 Aug 2026 and the lowest 14% on 7 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 23%; a month before, 30.5%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 40% on 3 Sep 2026.
It is one of 14 markets under “What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?”.
$69.53 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.28K since listing. The order book holds $5.33K, with a 8.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is Bla-485 with 526 shares; the largest No position is Alegrandebig with 745. Ten wallets hold 85.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 8:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 70 points, 14 Aug 2026 – 27 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026 | 59.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 30.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Alegrandebig | No | 744.94 |
| Bla-485 | Yes | 526.07 |
| Copezilla | Yes | 349.99 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spx-hit-dec-2026
2 more markets, none above 1.9%.
| Crazy-Tambourine |
| No |
| 237.57 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 106.72 |
| Suburban-Ecliptic | No | 100 |
| mehanizator | Yes | 99.63 |
| Frequent-Underground-Bureau | No | 69.46 |
| ThisTime4Real | No | 68.16 |
| KOMZY | Yes | 52.89 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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