Analytics
Yes is at 10.5%, down 40 points from 50% when the market opened on 14 Aug 2026.
Across the 72 daily closes on record from 14 Aug 2026 to 26 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 14 Aug 2026 and the lowest 5% on 10 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%; a month before, 7%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 16% on 15 Aug 2026.
It is one of 14 markets under “What will S&P 500 (SPX) hit by end of December?”.
$10.1 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $6.54K since listing. The order book holds $15.49K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 61 trades, $249.18 bought Yes and $2.54K bought No.
The largest Yes position is KOMZY with 1.3K shares; the largest No position is Alegrandebig with 2.7K. Ten wallets hold 97.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 26, 10:52 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 72 points, 14 Aug 2026 – 26 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 26 Oct 2026 | 10.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Alegrandebig | No | 2.69K |
| ourdemocracy | No | 1.64K |
| KOMZY | Yes | 1.31K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/. If, at market close on the final day of trading of December 2026, price data is unavailable from Yahoo Finance for any relevant period, price data from Wall Street Journal Markets, Google Finance, and Market Watch will be used, in that order. If price data is not available for the relevant period from any of these sources by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spx-hit-dec-2026
2 more markets, none above 1.8%.
| JungPung |
| Yes |
| 1.1K |
| frozenriver | Yes | 1K |
| mehanizator | Yes | 986.08 |
| Avamax | No | 510 |
| icebabyfish | Yes | 277.78 |
| Coral Kestrel 29F5 | Yes | 157.3 |
| seafoodcapital | Yes | 100 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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