Analytics
Yes is at 3.4%, down 7.1 points from 10.5% when the market opened on 10 Jun 2026.
Across the 140 daily closes on record from 10 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 10.5% on 10 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 5 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.1%; a month before, 1.7%. Its largest one-day move was 6.7 points down, to 3.6% on 2 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 by...?”.
$30.74K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $3.17K, with a 3.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 267 trades, $839.63 bought Yes and $6.06K bought No; the largest was a $1.87K buy of No at 90.7¢.
The largest Yes position is EirikFH with 1.9K shares; the largest No position is Quiet Meteor 2709 with 3.1K. Ten wallets hold 71.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:11 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 140 points, 10 Jun 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2026 | 10.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Quiet Meteor 2709 | No | 3.08K |
| Paul973973 | No | 1.99K |
| EirikFH | Yes | 1.9K |
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that SpaceX will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-ipo-officially-added-to-sp-500-in-2026-20260608202834697
| Solar Raven A90C |
| No |
| 1.58K |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 1.07K |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 1.02K |
| mewmew1 | Yes | 982 |
| France217 | Yes | 947.95 |
| K1ngN0rth | No | 610.69 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 491.53 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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