Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“SCOTUS invalidates AR-15 bans?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Aug 2, 2027 UTC. As of Sep 26, 1:02 PM UTC, Yes trades at 86.5¢, an 86.5% implied chance, $2.78 traded in the last 24 hours, $63.88 resting in the order book, a 5.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 87 daily price points from Jul 2, 2026 UTC to Sep 26, 2026 UTC (Yes between 52.0% and 88.0%); 10 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 12 recent public fills from 8 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 87 points · 2 Jul 2026 – 26 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2026 | 52.0% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | 86.5% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bold Raven C7B5 | Yes | 176.13 |
| AJSV | No | 56.89 |
| LornaPredicts | No |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in either or both of Grant v. Higgins and Viramontes v. Cook County, issues a ruling or order with the effect of invalidating state or local bans on the ownership or possession of AR-15 or similar semiautomatic rifles, by August 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If both of the referenced cases are permanently removed from the court's docket without the issuance of such a ruling or order, this market will immediately resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in these cases. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/scotus-invalidates-ar-15-bans-20260630193915657
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 32.89 |
| D222222222 | No | 20 |
| Miaomi666 | No | 20 |
| T22222222222 | No | 20 |
| maomao228 | No | 20 |
| pppnn | No | 5.01 |
| Wordy-Doctrine | No | 5 |
| Bunter.Hiden | Yes | 3.66 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard