Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 15 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 15 Sep 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 48.5% on 15 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 28 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 43 points down, to 6% on 16 Sep 2026. $10.05K traded over the market's life.
17 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 4:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 15 Sep 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Sep 2026 | 48.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AiBird | Yes | 1.58K |
| Coral Tide AA9E | Yes | 622.32 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 350 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying listing must identify Sam Altman by name together with his role at OpenAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of OpenAI. Once Sam Altman is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended. The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Sam Altman or OpenAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/sam-altman-signs-the-pacing-the-frontier-statement-by-september-30
| Yes |
| 90 |
| PaddyAlpha | Yes | 55 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 53.07 |
| lissartter | Yes | 52.78 |
| misha-d1 | Yes | 50 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Lustyleopard | Yes | 43.38 |
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