Analytics
Yes is at 23%, up 15 points from 8.5% when the market opened on 3 Oct 2026.
Across the 24 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 25.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 8.5% on 3 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 15.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points up, to 22.5% on 18 Oct 2026.
$2.47K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $48.17K since listing. The order book holds $13.08K, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 330 trades, $3.41K bought Yes and $13.13K bought No; the largest was a $2.14K buy of No at 85.0¢.
The largest Yes position is DirkDiggler67 with 4.9K shares; the largest No position is h4xor with 2.7K. Ten wallets hold 73.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 7:30 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 24 points, 3 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 5%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | 8.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 25.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DirkDiggler67 | Yes | 4.91K |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | 3.81K |
| h4xor | No | 2.74K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/pete-hegseth-out-as-secretary-of-defense-by-november-30-20261001003401433
| TronOG |
| No |
| 1.63K |
| Trumpchi | No | 1.62K |
| Folletin | No | 1.55K |
| kaspersz | No | 1.21K |
| Jest55 | No | 1.14K |
| CarVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 1K |
| Heyo0292 | Yes | 783.82 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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