People's Bank of China rate cut by March 31?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 31, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$119.6K

Resolved

Settled

Mar 31, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 31 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 21 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 36 daily closes on record from 21 Feb 2026 to 31 Mar 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 43.5% on 21 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 31 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 17.5% on 22 Feb 2026. $119.64K traded over the market's life.

52 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 1, 1:46 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 36 points, 21 Feb 2026 – 31 Mar 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
21 Feb 2026	43.5%
31 Mar 2026	0.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
TENETENET	Yes	500
whysoseriousman	Yes	397.92
Distinct-Shelter-Compromise	Yes	389.01
oak	Yes	274.89

10 of 52 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cuts the 7-day reverse repo rate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “cut” refers to any lowering of the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate. An official announcement of a cut to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of when the rate cut is stated to go into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a cut to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.