Analytics
Yes is at 5.1%, down 43 points from 48.5% when the market opened on 1 Oct 2026.
Across the 25 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 10 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4%. Its largest one-day move was 17 points down, to 20% on 6 Oct 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “October 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)”.
$1.75K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $1.84K, with a 9.5% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 22 trades, $9.07 bought Yes and $1.18K bought No.
The largest Yes position is TheWindKnowsmyName with 526 shares; the largest No position is Corny-Hyphenation with 978.
Trading closes on 2 Dec 2026, 33 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 1 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 48.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 5.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Corny-Hyphenation | No | 978.39 |
| TheWindKnowsmyName | Yes | 525.96 |
| balerinacapuchina | No | 285.69 |
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for October 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for October 2026 is later revised. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/october-2026-temperature-increase-c-20260928t160000000z
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 281.04 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 204.39 |
| AMAM13 | Yes | 105 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | Yes | 69.59 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 66.91 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 40.1 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 40 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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