Analytics
Resolved Yes on 5 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.5%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 27 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 99.5% on 5 Mar 2026 and the low 33% on 28 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 54 points up, to 99.5% on 5 Mar 2026.
25 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 6, 1:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 27 Feb 2026 – 5 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | 37.5% |
| 5 Mar 2026 | 99.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ted.K | No | 3K |
| 5atka | No | 200 |
| Fussy-Replica | No | 111.11 |
| bjprolo | No | 100 |
| Chris0622 | No | 96.15 |
| OttovonBismarck | No | 94.55 |
| Lunar Oracle A9D0 | No | 59.59 |
| Sk1z | No | 40 |
| TheOne777 | No | 35.68 |
| commonraccoon | No | 32.44 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/north-korea-missile-launch-by-march-15
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