
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 54.5% on 15 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 48 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 60% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.9% on 1 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 20.5% on 16 Aug 2026. $12.98K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 5:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 54.5% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| User983 | Yes | 799.97 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 160 |
| a5533 | Yes | 100 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Z.ai's next GLM model (5.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of Z.ai's core GLM series, have a name or model identifier that includes "GLM," and be designated as a version greater than 5.3, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version greater than 5.3 named in the same manner as GLM-5.2 or GLM-5.3 would qualify, including versions that skip numbers, such as GLM-5.5 or GLM-6, while models with a version designation of 5.3 or below, or derivative models not positioned as the next flagship GLM release, such as GLM-5.3-Turbo, will not qualify. Staged rollouts of a model already publicly accessible before market creation, such as the open-weight or API release of GLM-5.3, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Z.ai as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Z.ai, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-zptai-glm-5pt4-released-byptptpt
| fridgythefridge | No | 80.97 |
| dragmama | Yes | 65.22 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 50 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 47.23 |
| crossFiter | Yes | 44.55 |
| Practical-Thong | Yes | 22.74 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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