Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 26.5% on 1 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 336 daily closes on record from 1 Feb 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 26.5% on 1 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 28 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 11.5% on 2 Feb 2025. $170.79K traded over the market's life.
108 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 336 points, 1 Feb 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2025 | 26.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.4% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/natoeu-troops-fighting-in-ukraine-in-2025
| cmidujwd293 | Yes | 2.18K |
| cheerstome | Yes | 1.61K |
| miutxd | Yes | 1.55K |
| pmpmatt | Yes | 950 |
| Golden Falcon 9313 | Yes | 600 |
| Dovebutch | Yes | 500 |
| value365 | Yes | 454.55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
