Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 7% on 6 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 135 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 29 Mar 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 10.5% on 11 Nov 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 28 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points up, to 8% on 5 Mar 2026. $42.67K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 3:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 135 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 29 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 7.0% |
| 29 Mar 2026 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| amused85 | Yes | 3.5K |
| bennybass | Yes | 1.07K |
| heresjimmy | Yes | 899.73 |
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/nato-article-5-by-march-31
| Yes |
| 312.5 |
| markmattersoon | Yes | 199.9 |
| Amber Kestrel 20F2 | Yes | 158.93 |
| oraclesql | Yes | 133.78 |
| ACara | Yes | 92 |
| Ben1010 | Yes | 83.15 |
| Bulky-Millimeter | Yes | 60.57 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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