Analytics
Yes is at 17.5%, down 10 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 11 Jul 2026.
Across the 107 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 32% on 13 Aug 2026 and the lowest 10.5% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.5%; a month before, 15%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 32% on 13 Aug 2026.
$208.75 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $28.7K since listing. The order book holds $13K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 329 trades, $1.15K bought Yes and $11.32K bought No; the largest was a $1.63K buy of No at 86.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Warren-Buffett with 5K shares; the largest No position is nonkenny90 with 3.6K. Ten wallets hold 91% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 107 points, 11 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2026 | 27.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 17.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Warren-Buffett | Yes | 5K |
| nonkenny90 | No | 3.64K |
| Jep-G | No | 2K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mohammed Ghalibaf ceases to be the Speaker of the Parliament of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed Ghalibaf's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed Ghalibaf and the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/mohammed-ghalibaf-out-as-speaker-of-iran-parliament-byptptpt-20260709235401297
| Michael-The-Taxiarch |
| No |
| 1.59K |
| SqMoneyHunter | Yes | 1.21K |
| AlAhmeda | No | 991.17 |
| gods-eye | Yes | 890 |
| KakiBatusik | Yes | 594.19 |
| Nanamo613 | Yes | 319 |
| acc42020 | Yes | 299.21 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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