Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Meta's Watermelon released by October 15, 2026?” is a tech prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...?”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Oct 16, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 25, 10:11 PM UTC, Yes trades at 48.0¢, a 48.0% implied chance, $24.76 traded in the last 24 hours, $247.12 resting in the order book, a 44.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 4 daily price points from Sep 23, 2026 UTC to Sep 25, 2026 UTC (Yes between 25.5% and 60.5%); 11 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 98.5% of the loaded shares; 13 recent public fills from 8 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 4 points · 23 Sep 2026 – 25 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Sep 2026 | 25.5% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 48.0% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Contentious-Dinnerdate | Yes | 100 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | No | 100 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes |
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon." This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/metas-watermelon-model-released-byptptpt
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 20 |
| Quiet Orbit 7DA2 | Yes | 20 |
| Termostating | No | 20 |
| AJSV | No | 20 |
| idl | No | 11.17 |
| hackingthebettingmarkets | Yes | 6.18 |
| Coral Signal 51F6 | Yes | 5 |
| isnE4ZgjkP3nxh | Yes | 4.76 |