Analytics
Yes is at 4.5%, down 10 points from 14.5% when the market opened on 20 Aug 2026.
The high was 19.2% on 29 Sep 2026 and the low 1.1% on 24 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 10.7%; a month ago, 1.1%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 1.6% on 21 Aug 2026.
$703.42 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $487.09, with a 5.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 26 trades, $23.1 bought Yes and $288.37 bought No.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 185 shares; the largest No position is enrico-vasaio with 212.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 83 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 10, 12:42 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 53 points · 20 Aug 2026 – 10 Oct 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | 14.5% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| enrico-vasaio | No | 212.38 |
| AJSV | Yes | 184.58 |
| Keen Horizon 328A | No | 60 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Merck & Co. (MRK) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Moderna (MRNA), or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying merger or acquisition must encompass both MRK and MRNA or their subsidiaries. An announcement by MRK or MRNA within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. A bid or offer announcement without the indication of a settled agreement will not qualify. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company announces the acquisition of a controlling interest in the other company. A "controlling interest" refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company's strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from MRK and MRNA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/merck-moderna-mergeracquisition-announced-in-2026
| VSika |
| Yes |
| 28 |
| LS-ship | Yes | 20.1 |
| Perypery | Yes | 20 |
| smarterstrat | Yes | 20 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 17.13 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 10.51 |
| ScottsRoad | Yes | 5.58 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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