Megaquake by January 31?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 2, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$77.6K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 2, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 2 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 13% on 30 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 30 Dec 2025 to 2 Feb 2026, the highest close was 13% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 7.5% on 31 Dec 2025. $77.6K traded over the market's life.

29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 3, 8:22 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 30 Dec 2025 – 2 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Dec 2025	13.0%
2 Feb 2026	0.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
PnW	Yes	9.67K
amused85	Yes	7.5K
sstvbe	Yes	1.23K
okty	Yes	1.01K

10 of 29 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.