Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 36 points from 42.5% when the market opened on 30 Dec 2025.
The high was 42.5% on 30 Dec 2025 and the low 3.6% on 20 Jul 2026. A week ago Yes was at 5.9%; a month ago, 7.2%. Its largest one-day move was 34 points down, to 9% on 31 Dec 2025.
$16 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $147.8K since listing. The order book holds $7.89K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.92K bought Yes and $18.6K bought No; the largest was a $3.48K sell of No at 31.7¢.
The largest Yes position is EyeSaw with 6.1K shares; the largest No position is DEGENKHAN with 6.7K. Ten wallets hold 77.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 11, 7:14 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 284 points · 30 Dec 2025 – 11 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025 | 42.5% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DEGENKHAN | No | 6.73K |
| EyeSaw | Yes | 6.11K |
| Mustafalafel | No | 3.95K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/major-volcano-eruption-vei-6-in-2026
| paulco |
| Yes |
| 3.02K |
| Diligent-Scenario | No | 2.94K |
| THEKROWN | Yes | 1.34K |
| Oval-Swivel | Yes | 1.18K |
| Coral Horizon 99D6 | Yes | 1.17K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1.09K |
| Solar Raven A90C | No | 1.01K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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