Analytics
Yes is at 10.5%, down 4 points from 14.5% when the market opened on 10 Jul 2026.
Across the 105 daily closes on record from 10 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 18.5% on 29 Sep 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 11 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 8.5%; a month before, 18.5%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points up, to 18.5% on 29 Sep 2026.
It is one of 2 markets under “Le Pen names non-Bardella PM by...?”.
$4.2K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $12.34K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 139 trades, $68.51 bought Yes and $1.26K bought No.
The largest Yes position is PascalPro with 350 shares; the largest No position is StudentMoney with 546. Ten wallets hold 92.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:17 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 105 points, 10 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | 14.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 10.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| StudentMoney | No | 546.12 |
| PascalPro | Yes | 350.11 |
| InsolentBret | No | 148.35 |
On July 7, 2026, Marine Le Pen announced she is running in the 2027 French presidential election and has named Jordan Bardella as her intended Prime Minister. You can read more about that here: https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-jordan-bardella-2027-campaign/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Marine Le Pen publicly names someone other than Jordan Bardella as the person she would appoint or support as Prime Minister if elected President by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying endorsement must be a public statement naming a preferred Prime Minister other than Jordan Bardella if Le Pen is elected President. Withdrawing support from Bardella alone will not qualify unless Le Pen also names another person for Prime Minister. If Marine Le Pen definitively drops out, is disqualified, or does not run as a presidential candidate in the 2027 French presidential election, this market will resolve to “No” immediately. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Marine Le Pen, the National Rally, or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/le-pen-names-non-bardella-pm-byptptpt-20260708200413440
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 147.7 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 77.96 |
| Numitus1994 | Yes | 41.38 |
| Poor-Update-Opera | No | 40 |
| thecaricature | Yes | 40 |
| zgmzgm | Yes | 29.99 |
| iwishthisworks | Yes | 29.55 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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