Analytics
Yes is at 3.8%, down 36 points from 40% when the market opened on 20 Mar 2026.
Across the 200 daily closes on record from 20 Mar 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (26 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 40% on 20 Mar 2026 and the lowest 3.8% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 4.8%; a month before, 6.3%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 24.5% on 21 Mar 2026.
$529.9 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $33.28K since listing. The order book holds $15.97K, with a 0.9% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 215 trades, $452.7 bought Yes and $12.76K bought No; the largest was a $1.8K buy of No at 94.5¢.
The largest Yes position is CryptoAddict with 1K shares; the largest No position is DARKA1977 with 1.9K. Ten wallets hold 85.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:41 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 200 points, 20 Mar 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Mar 2026 | 40.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DARKA1977 | No | 1.91K |
| CryptoAddict | Yes | 1K |
| milkyyyy | Yes | 544.56 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Joseph Aoun ceases to be President of Lebanon for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Joseph Aoun's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Joseph Aoun and the government of Lebanon; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/joseph-aoun-out-as-president-of-lebanon-by-december-31
| denizz |
| No |
| 451.88 |
| archaic | No | 345.55 |
| poloskah | Yes | 320 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 256 |
| ToTheWindow | No | 228.99 |
| Legal-Patriot | Yes | 150 |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 143.72 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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