Analytics
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“Japan recession in 2026?” is a economy prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
Trading is open until Mar 31, 2027. As of Sep 15, 10:01 AM, Yes trades at 6.5¢, a 6.5% implied chance, $4.13K traded in the last 24 hours, $274.49 resting in the order book, a 1.0% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 25 hourly price points from Sep 14, 2026 to Sep 15, 2026 (Yes between 6.5% and 6.5%); 40 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 80.8% of the loaded shares; 158 recent public fills from 59 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Japan’s seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter percent change in real GDP (Quarterly Real Growth Rate, Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter), as reported by the Cabinet Office, is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market includes estimates reported in both the Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters. This market’s resolution will be based on the most recently available qualifying estimates for the relevant quarters at the time of each relevant release. Any two consecutive quarters with qualifying negative GDP growth will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate is also negative, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the relevant estimate for Q2 2026 is negative, and the initial estimate for Q1 2026 was negative, but Q1 2026’s most recently available qualifying estimate at the time of the Q2 release is positive, this will not qualify. This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying recession occurs. If no qualifying recession has occurred and the most recently available qualifying estimates for both Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 are positive at the time of the release of the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026, this market will resolve to “No” at that time. If the most recently available qualifying estimate for either Q3 2026 or Q4 2026 is negative at that time, this market will remain open until the Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) for Q4 2026 is published. If that release is not published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available qualifying data at that time. The resolution source for this market will be the Cabinet Office, specifically its Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) and Quarterly Estimates of GDP (Second Preliminary Estimates) releases for the relevant quarters. Note: January to March will be considered Q1, April to June will be considered Q2, July to September will be considered Q3, and October to December will be considered Q4.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/japan-recession-in-2026
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| buoys | No | 249.99 |
| KTKK | No | 223.85 |
| KrdRL | No | 165.08 |
| PROPHET.NOTES | Yes | 164.06 |
| Neon Oracle A8A9 | No | 111.39 |
| Physical-Stepdaughter | Yes | 107.91 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow | Yes | 91.07 |
| AJSV | Yes | 62.99 |
| Biver52 | Yes | 61.99 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 44.87 |