Analytics
Resolved Yes on 22 Nov 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 21.5%. Yes opened at 20.5% on 8 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 8 Nov 2025 to 22 Nov 2025, the highest close was 22% on 21 Nov 2025 and the lowest 7% on 12 Nov 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 11.5% on 9 Nov 2025. $36.13K traded over the market's life.
41 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 24, 12:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 8 Nov 2025 – 22 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2025 | 20.5% |
| 22 Nov 2025 | 21.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| funding | No | 4K |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 779.99 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 247 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | No | 225.11 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Bolsonaro is confined in a jail or prison for any length of time by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". House arrest will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the detaining government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/jair-bolsonaro-in-jail-by-november-30
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| Lostprediction | No | 217.55 |
| msen | No | 206.36 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 122 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 120 |
| dwang65 | No | 83.08 |
| amn123465 | No | 80 |
