
Resolved No on 3 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 34% on 9 Jun 2026. Before it settled, across the 25 daily closes on record from 9 Jun 2026 to 3 Jul 2026, the highest close was 56.5% on 12 Jun 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 2 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 51.5% on 11 Jun 2026. $114.12K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 10:01 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 25 points, 9 Jun 2026 – 3 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Jun 2026 | 34.0% |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 👑_King_George_👑 | Yes | 1.06K |
| JaIsOne1 | Yes | 668.83 |
| CHIKI33 | Yes | 349.99 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-nabatieh-by
| is1 | Yes | 201.13 |
| IbnKhaldun | Yes | 199.99 |
| tinman2 | Yes | 150 |
| wjusty | Yes | 107.77 |
| Gray-Supreme | Yes | 100.01 |
| Jacob890 | Yes | 61.45 |
| Kingslayer669 | Yes | 34.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page