Analytics
Yes is at 9.9%, down 42 points from 52% when the market opened on 8 Sep 2026.
Across the 44 daily closes on record from 8 Sep 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52% on 8 Sep 2026 and the lowest 3% on 18 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 9.8%; a month before, 9.6%. Its largest one-day move was 37 points down, to 11.5% on 14 Sep 2026.
$223.38 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $302.92, with a 12.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 64 shares; the largest No position is ToTheWindow with 100.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2026, 64 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 44 points, 8 Sep 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Sep 2026 | 52.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 9.8% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| ToTheWindow | No | 100 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 63.9 |
| TheJewishHammer | Yes | 16.8 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israeli-forces-enter-nabatieh-by
| romanew-7-spread05 |
| Yes |
| 9.38 |
| samya1 | Yes | 7 |
| Exemplary-Decisionmaking | Yes | 5 |
| LexiLux | No | 2.08 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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