Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 2.5% on 26 Sep 2024. Before it settled, the high was 5.5% on 27 Sep 2024 and the low 0.3% on 30 Sep 2024. $183.94K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 6:16 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 26 Sep 2024 – 1 Oct 2024, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2024 | 2.5% |
| 1 Oct 2024 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sam663 | No | 2.04 |
| Eyebrows | Yes | 0.1 |
| daval | No | 0.05 |
| gENESIS-560 | No | 0.05 |
| anciano | No | 0.04 |
| okcoolstorybro | No | 0.02 |
| DoneWithIt | No | 0.01 |
| aaacz | Yes | 0.01 |
| CryptoBecu | No | 0.01 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of Israel and Hezbollah both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two parties that will go into effect by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Israel-Hezbollah military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both parties. A humanitarian pause will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. If only one party (e.g. only Israel, or only Hezbollah) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-x-hezbollah-ceasefire-in-september
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