Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 19 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 133 daily closes on record from 19 Feb 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 34.5% on 24 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 13.5% on 14 Mar 2025. $104K traded over the market's life.
27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 133 points, 19 Feb 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2025 | 28.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BenGvir | Yes | 4.5K |
| Ladysolsol | Yes | 2.2K |
| Username24912001 | Yes | 243.21 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon between February 17, and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanon territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-before-july
| Yes |
| 208.33 |
| uvlFcifwkf | Yes | 155 |
| jayCa | Yes | 129.63 |
| MkVwzKZZlM | Yes | 128.56 |
| AyYzjbBPkH | Yes | 127.44 |
| thelongshot | Yes | 103.45 |
| mirakulous | Yes | 52.63 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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