Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.9%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 3 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 3 Sep 2025 to 1 Oct 2025, the highest close was 23% on 16 Sep 2025 and the lowest 1.1% on 1 Oct 2025. Its largest one-day move was 14 points up, to 23% on 16 Sep 2025. $16.77K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 15, 11:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 3 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Sep 2025 | 8.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 1.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tinolwn | Yes | 498.55 |
| BenjaminNetAnYahoo | Yes | 246.67 |
| ciaociao23 | Yes | 219.83 |
| -Guapo-- | Yes | 160 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Damascus Governorate, or any target within it, between September 1, 7:20 PM ET, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Damascus Governorate. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land in Damascus Governorate, or cause damage. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-strike-on-damascus-by-september-30
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 132.98 |
| sargon | Yes | 105.31 |
| S888 | Yes | 61.41 |
| RokoPoko | Yes | 54 |
| Overdue-Recognition | Yes | 16.67 |
| Runny-Formal | Yes | 10 |
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