Iran military response tonight?

geopoliticsResolved

No, settled Aug 6, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$19.9K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 6, 2024 UTC

Topic roomIran–Israel

Where it stands

Resolved No on 6 Aug 2024.

$19.86K traded over the market's life.

15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 7, 10:52 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 1 point, 6 Aug 2024, chart shows 2%–12%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
6 Aug 2024	7.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Ill-Logo	Yes	100
AndreAlmeida	Yes	97
pshiuuuu	Yes	68.75
Claq	Yes	61.11
bangkokboi	Yes	0.07
BoB	Yes	0.03
unilexbraa	No	0.02
americandream	No	0.02
Donkov	Yes	0.01
AB.-	No	0.01

10 of 15 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On August 5, Donald Trump said "Israel is going to be attacked tonight by Iran." (see: https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1820526748347593026). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a military action on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory between August 5, 12:00 PM PT (noon) and August 5, 2024, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Iran on Israeli soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Israeli soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Iranian government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only responses by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks on Israel by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.