Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 2.3% on 8 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 8 Aug 2026 to 16 Aug 2026, the highest close was 2.3% on 8 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 16 Aug 2026. $61.81K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 8 Aug 2026 – 16 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2026 | 2.3% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| donateck | Yes | 27.86K |
| AIisme | Yes | 6.4K |
| FarseerProphecies | Yes | 6K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by
| aegis777 | Yes | 1.24K |
| satoshiwise | Yes | 437.69 |
| ManualMan | Yes | 200 |
| Pouur | Yes | 119.05 |
| Cadmium | Yes | 117.65 |
| Kingfish58 | Yes | 100 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 99.98 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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