Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 47.5% on 15 Mar 2026 and the low 0.1% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 9.5 points down, to 19.5% on 25 Mar 2026. $4.96M traded over the market's life.
596 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 21, 6:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 48 points, 10 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 43.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| looserb | Yes | 295.04K |
| FarseerProphecies | Yes | 42.9K |
| Useful-Ecliptic | Yes | 30.63K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by
| 1756 | Yes | 24.15K |
| Broken-Cashew | Yes | 17.14K |
| Amatin | Yes | 16.25K |
| ProfitMuhammedPBUH | Yes | 14.98K |
| Careless-Bug | Yes | 13.66K |
| nevrasca123456 | Yes | 13.63K |
| Ringed-Gambling | Yes | 13.29K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
