Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 16.5% on 11 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2026 to 13 Jul 2026, the highest close was 16.5% on 11 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 13 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 2.2% on 12 Jul 2026. $335.95K traded over the market's life.
71 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 14, 10:14 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 11 Jul 2026 – 13 Jul 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2026 | 16.5% |
| 13 Jul 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| NeLevak282 | Yes | 3.51K |
| troim | Yes | 2K |
| collectorr | Yes | 1.72K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian government, publicly and officially announces a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 12, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of Iran’s present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a commitment not to attack ships transiting the Strait. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a policy, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the Iranian government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that Iran will make such an announcement; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional policy rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a the policy is ever actually implemented. Resolution will be based on official information from the Iranian government, including the Iranian military, and its authorized representatives.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/iran-commits-not-to-attack-ships-in-hormuz-by-sunday-20260710215434348
| Yes |
| 1.71K |
| Realmrjimmy | Yes | 1.3K |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | Yes | 1.01K |
| Bustling-Cartoon | Yes | 842.98 |
| Rapid Quasar 51BA | Yes | 782.68 |
| Hasby74 | Yes | 595.01 |
| Coral Summit 5B7F | Yes | 584.59 |
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