Analytics
Yes is at 17.5%, down 3.5 points from 21% when the market opened on 10 Oct 2026.
Across the 19 daily closes on record from 10 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 23.5% on 16 Oct 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 17 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 16%. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 15.5% on 17 Oct 2026.
$20.1 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.51K since listing. The order book holds $10.64K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 54 trades, $104.21 bought Yes and $1.17K bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 455 shares; the largest No position is Same-Deodorant with 422. Ten wallets hold 91.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 4:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 19 points, 10 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 10%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | 21.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 17.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 454.85 |
| Same-Deodorant | No | 422.2 |
| h038596027355 | No | 246.57 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any Immigration and Customs Enforcement employee, or other federal immigration enforcement officer, for their involvement in the shooting of Oscar Belgal in the Marble Hill neighborhood of Manhattan, New York City on October 8, 2026, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ice-agent-charged-in-nyc-incident-by-december-31-20261009212453188
| PMWolf | Yes | 63.79 |
| PPMT | Yes | 60 |
| clazzy1 | No | 60 |
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 59.98 |
| erFiodena | No | 42.53 |
| Tallguy2527 | Yes | 40 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 22.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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