Analytics
Yes is at 29.5%, down 7.5 points from 37% when the market opened on 23 Oct 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 39.5% on 27 Oct 2026 and the lowest 29.5% on 29 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 34.5% on 28 Oct 2026.
It is one of 3 markets under “Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)”.
$1.1K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $12.24K since listing. The order book holds $32.5K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 165 trades, $1.26K bought Yes and $3.11K bought No; the largest was a $1.36K buy of No at 67.0¢.
The largest Yes position is theta-thunberg with 1.1K shares; the largest No position is SnapElectionAvoider with 2K. Ten wallets hold 76.2% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 34 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:44 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 23 Oct 2026 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 25%–45%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2026 | 37.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 29.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| SnapElectionAvoider | No | 2.03K |
| theta-thunberg | Yes | 1.07K |
| Arman2 | Yes | 910.94 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis capture Taiz, Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. The Houthis will be considered to have captured Taiz if the Houthis have established primary military control over Al-Qahira Castle (Cairo Castle) in Taiz city. The Houthis having established primary military control over an area of Taiz city encompassing Al-Qahira Castle will be sufficient, unless credible reporting indicates the castle itself remains outside Houthi control. Primary military control must be clearly demonstrated by this market’s resolution sources to qualify. Control which is credibly contested or disputed, or not clearly evidenced, will not qualify. Temporary raids, infiltration, isolated incursions, special operations, bombardment, shelling, sabotage, siege or encirclement of the city, or temporary disruption of government activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of capture will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual Houthi control has been established. If the occurrence or timing of a potentially qualifying capture cannot be determined on the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market may remain open for three calendar days (ET) after the specified date. If Houthi control as defined above is not confirmed by this market’s resolution sources by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Only control established on or before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, will be considered. The primary resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and photo or video evidence of Houthi control.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/houthis-capture-taiz-byptptpt-castle
| DawnOfYemen |
| Yes |
| 400 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 347.34 |
| frozenriver | No | 320.99 |
| rocky42003 | Yes | 299.26 |
| Athletic-Sender | No | 298.51 |
| BigRabbit | Yes | 259.43 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 220 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
