Analytics
Yes is at 6%, down 22 points from 27.5% when the market opened on 9 Apr 2026.
Across the 186 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (19 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 27.5% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 4% on 18 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5%; a month before, 4.5%. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 14.5% on 22 Jul 2026.
$50.02 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $114.64K since listing. The order book holds $12.02K, with a 2.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $797.88 bought Yes and $49.24K bought No; the largest was a $2.94K buy of No at 86.0¢.
The largest Yes position is gods-eye with 10.1K shares; the largest No position is QMG-CORE with 6.7K. Ten wallets hold 94.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 186 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 27.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 6.0% |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe. An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/hamad-bin-isa-al-khalifa-out-as-bahrain-king
| Bromley86 |
| No |
| 1.07K |
| Funny-Squirrel | Yes | 935.3 |
| Volku | Yes | 578.99 |
| Elias.Thornwell | No | 575.1 |
| AlAhmeda | Yes | 327.14 |
| Worthy-Lament | Yes | 316.36 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 168.06 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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