Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Government shutdown by October 1?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Oct 2, 2026 UTC. As of Sep 28, 1:56 AM UTC, Yes trades at 0.4¢, a 0.4% implied chance, $16.49K traded in the last 24 hours, $21.35K resting in the order book, a 0.3% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 110 daily price points from Jun 11, 2026 UTC to Sep 28, 2026 UTC (Yes between 0.4% and 66.0%); 52 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 88.1% of the loaded shares; 151 recent public fills from 74 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 110 points · 11 Jun 2026 – 28 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jun 2026 | 42.5% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 0.4% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pkz | No | 4.6K |
| Fulgurator | No | 3.48K |
| Perypery | Yes |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government enters a shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A U.S. federal government shutdown is considered to have gone into effect when there is a lapse in appropriations that results in federal government agencies suspending non-excepted operations, typically including the furlough of non-excepted federal employees. A lapse in appropriations occurs when Congress fails to enact, or the President fails to sign into law, legislation providing funding authority for federal government operations by an applicable deadline, resulting in a funding lapse. A lapse in appropriations where no federal agencies cease or suspend non-excepted operations will not qualify as a shutdown. Partial shutdowns qualify. A shutdown affecting one or more, but not all, federal agencies constitutes a shutdown. The following will qualify as a shutdown: - An official directive from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) ordering heads of affected agencies to execute shutdown plans (e.g., an instruction to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown") that is in effect by the specified date and time - An official operating status published by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) indicating that, due to a lapse in appropriations, federal government operations are suspended, reduced, or vary by agency (e.g., a notice that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency") The following will not qualify as a shutdown: - A technical lapse in appropriations where OMB or other authorized authority directs agencies to continue normal or substantially normal operations - Government closures or operating status changes resulting solely from Federal holidays, inclement weather, natural disasters, or other emergencies, unless such closures coincide with a qualifying shutdown caused by a lapse in appropriations The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government, including the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/government-shutdown-by-october-1-20260610162414910
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 3K |
| Nadmi | Yes | 2.93K |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 881.72 |
| DirkDiggler67 | No | 382.09 |
| dedidanc | Yes | 365 |
| GGInInder30cm | No | 349.66 |
| 20micmic | Yes | 311.11 |
| Newshound | No | 280.4 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
